So You Tested Positive For COVID, But Do You Actually Have COVID? A Friendly Intro to Bayes' Law
Sensitivity: 84.6%. Specificity: 98.5%. What do these numbers mean, and how confident can you be in the result of an at-home direct antigen COVID test? Plus, there are so many different manufacturers, such as Quidel, Ellume, and Abbott. Which one is best? Let's learn about conditional probability, false positives and negatives, COVID testing, and Bayes' Law.
00:00 Intro
00:16 Sensitivity & Specificity
01:17 "If A, chance of B" vs "If B, chance of A"
02:40 Relationship Between These Two Quantities
04:18 Why Are They Different?
05:50 Prevalence Matters
06:31 Getting A General Formula
07:56 Trying The Formula On Real Numbers
08:50 Introducing Bayes Law
10:10 Why Bayes Law Is So Important
10:45 Recap
