Part 2: Next El Niño likely to turbocharge global temperature records into exceeding 1.5C in 2024
Part 2:
When the next El Niño occurs, it seems pretty obvious that we will likely set the highest global average temperature ever. In this video I chat about how this is likely to occur in the next couple of years.
According to NOAA and others, by mid-2003 we will likely start to transition from our weakening La Niña state to neutral and then to an El Niño, models suggest that by next Fall odds are about even that we will be in an El Niño state, and 2023 global average temperature is likely to compete with the record levels set in 2016. Hold on to your hats. Since the atmospheric warming lags the ocean temperature warming by about 3-4 months, this means that 2024 will likely be the warmest year yet by far, in fact temperatures will possibly exceed 1.5 C for the entire year.
My Part I video was abruptly cut off by my phone alarm, so I continued my discussions with Part II.
How strong will this El Niño be? Even a weak one is likely to push global average temperatures to record levels; while a super-El Nino (like in 2015-2016 and also 1998) will surely blow away the previous global average temperature records. When this happens, we will really wonder about how humanity can survive, let alone thrive with these new extremes in weather and climate.
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