The US should be prepared for a Russian invasion of the Baltics and a war with China by 2030. RAN...
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00:00 Greeting. Reminder of the RAND report and the objectives of the discussion
03:00 Geopolitical framework: Ukraine, the West and nuclear blackmail
06:00 The problem of scaling production in the West
09:00 Paradox: private military-industrial complex and state interests
12:00 Profit versus readiness for war: the contractors' dilemma
15:00 The human factor: engineers, training, generation gap
18:00 Production chains: vulnerability and dependence on Asia
21:00 Microelectronics and the bottlenecks of the defense industry
24:00 Critique of the European approach to mobilizing the military-industrial complex
27:00 Great Britain: cuts, Trident and the peculiarities of logistics
30:00 Ukraine and NATO: the role in cooperation and production
33:00 Procurement, corruption and weak planning in Ukraine
36:00 Why RAND included Ukraine in the analysis: challenges and potential
39:00 Ukraine as a testing ground and a mirror of problems NATO
42:00 Casualties, production rates and the resource economy of war
45:00 The role of the US: leadership, coordination and dependence of allies
48:00 What does “combat readiness” look like through the eyes of RAND
51:00 RAND's conclusions and key risks for the coming years
54:00 How the paradigm has changed: from local conflicts to total mobilization
57:00 Final conclusions. What should Ukraine, the EU and the US do next
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