Global Warming in the Pipeline: What the Science Says
After reading the vitally important landmark paper called “Global Warming in the Pipeline” by James E. Hansen and his colleagues for about the fifth time, I finally have a decent enough understanding of the paper to explain it to the general reader in a hopefully digestible and understandable video.
It does get quite technical, but I am hopeful that the key points can be understood, along with a rudimentary understanding of how they come about.
The key finding is that from 1970 to 2010, the average global warming rate was 0.18 degrees Celsius per decade.
Since 2010, this rate has accelerated to be between 0.27 degrees Celsius per decade and 0.36 degrees Celsius per decade.
Clearly, with a faster decadal warming rate, we will exceed the 1.5 C temperature guard band this decade and exceed the 2.0 C temperature threshold before 2050 (much sooner in my opinion).
The main reason for the step-increase in global warming rate appears to be the reduction of aerosols mostly by China and by the International Maritime Organization regulating (reducing) sulphur content in ship fuels.
The Fast Feedback Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is 1.2 degrees C per Watt per square meter climate forcing.
Present day climate forcing relative to 1750 is 4.1 Watt per square meter, so the fast feedback warming in the pipeline is about 5 degrees Celsius. Add the slow feedback warming which is about the same magnitude and we get a whopping 10C in the pipeline. Todays levels of aerosols would reduce this to 8 C.
Hansen then goes on to describe what humanity must do to reset.
Essentially, have a rising fee-and-dividend price on fossil fuels and zero subsidies. Revisit nuclear power with new technologies. Also deploy CDR (Carbon Dioxide Removal) and SRM (Solar Radiation Management) to reduce radiative forcing to bring the Earth back to Holocene temperatures.
Stay tuned in the near future for Hansen’s next paper on Global Sea Level in the Pipeline.
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